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Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.

His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

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This summer, the Commission reached settlements of £900,000 with Betfred over safer gambling failures, £4.75 million with Evolution over weaknesses in its AML risk assessment and supply-chain oversight, and £122,835 with Stakelogic after games were found to be running faster than permitted.

Taken together, the cases provide further ammunition for the anti-gambling lobby at a time when it is already facing political pressure, tax increases and demands for tighter restrictions. Each apparently avoidable failure makes it harder for the industry to argue that existing regulation is sufficient.

Yet Dan Waugh, partner at Regulus Partners, pushes back against the idea that enforcement notices reveal a fundamentally non-compliant sector.

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I want to thank Calvin for creating a platform that speaks to the gambling industry in a unique voice. He’s a guy who is not afraid to back his creative team, even in the face of a tough industry story. While Calivinayre.com is evolving, I will be following how he brings the same passion for business to the world of Bitcoin SV.

Calvinayre.com Editor-in-Chief, Bill Beatty – the Michael Kinsley of the gambling world. Bill just possesses that same rare gift of creating great writers. You won’t meet a more genuine guy that Bill, and I’m incredibly grateful for the opportunities to learn so much about the casino business, writing and how I see the world.

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